England welcome Serbia to Wembley on Thursday night with qualification already wrapped up, but there’s no sense of the Three Lions easing off. The hosts have been ruthless across this campaign, banking clean sheets, controlling territory and managing game states maturely. Serbia, for their part, are combative and direct, but their best moments tend to come at home; away to elite opposition they can spend long spells defending their box and chasing runners.
Expect England to dictate tempo from the first whistle. Gareth Southgate’s preferred 4-3-3 in these fixtures squeezes the middle third, allows the full-backs to advance in staggered phases, and funnels possession into the half-spaces where the likes of Foden and Bellingham can combine with Harry Kane. Once England establish that structure, they’re efficient from set pieces and clinical in transition whenever Serbia push up.
Serbia’s plan is no mystery: compact in a mid-block, quick to spring from long diagonals and second balls, and dangerous on early crosses. The flip side is that if England score first, Serbia’s shape stretches and the gaps around their full-backs widen. That’s where England’s repeated entries and cut-backs become decisive. Add in Kane’s movement off the shoulder and his penalty duty, and the goal threat is obvious.
For punters, England’s habit of keeping things measured while steadily turning the screw points to a straightforward market profile. Win to nil has landed frequently in this campaign and matches the eye test: England concede very few big chances at Wembley. Correct score backers can lean into England’s pattern of adding a late second or third once the game loosens. And with Kane’s volume of high-quality chances, the captain is the most reliable anytime angle.
Betting Tips
- England to win to nil — Evens (1/1)
England’s structure limits shots against; Serbia’s best deliveries can be crowded out by England’s centre-backs and a screening midfield. - Correct score: England 3–0 — 7/1
If England strike first, Serbia must open up. England’s bench impact and set pieces can push the margin to three. - Harry Kane to score anytime — 9/10
On penalties and consistently finding pockets between centre-back and full-back; expect two or three quality looks.
Match info: 19:45 Thu 13 Nov, Wembley Stadium (ITV).
Guide prices only—check your bookmaker for latest odds.
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