The tournament saves its best European derby for the semi-finals. France arrive in Arlington unbeaten and rampant, the tournament’s top scorers with 16 goals in six games and three consecutive clean sheets behind them. Spain, slower out of the blocks after a goalless opener against Cape Verde, have grown into genuine contenders and go into this level on recent history — a 5-4 thriller in last year’s Nations League semi-final that swung Spain’s way in the closing stages.
Didier Deschamps’ side eliminated Sweden, ground past a stubborn Paraguay, then dispatched Morocco 2-0 without needing to get out of second gear. Luis de la Fuente’s Spain kept four straight clean sheets before Charles De Ketelaere finally breached their defence in the quarter-final — only for Mikel Merino to bail them out with a late winner against Belgium, the second such rescue act in as many rounds.
Match Odds
| France Win | Draw | Spain Win |
|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | 9/4 | 9/4 |
Odds via bet365, correct at the time of writing and subject to change — check the app for the latest prices.
Team News
France
Kylian Mbappé has been the tournament’s standout attacking force, with Désiré Doué’s performance against Morocco pushing his claim for a starting berth ahead of Bradley Barcola. Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba have looked rock-solid at the back, giving Deschamps a settled defensive platform to build from.
Spain
Lamine Yamal is working his way back to full sharpness after a quieter run of games, while Mikel Oyarzabal continues to lead the line despite not being a natural out-and-out striker. De la Fuente’s midfield control has been the platform for Spain’s tournament, even as the goals have come at a premium.
Both teams to score is priced at 3/4, with over 2.5 goals in the 90 minutes at Evens — the market expects goals at both ends. The tie going to extra time is 11/2, with penalties at 9/2, reflecting just how tight this one is billed to be.
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France 2–1 Spain
Spain will have the ball more, but France have the sharper cutting edge and the tournament’s best individual talent in Mbappé. Their three-game clean sheet run suggests a defence that has found its rhythm at exactly the right time, even against opponents who have troubled it before.
We’re backing France to edge a tight, high-quality semi-final, with Mbappé to score anytime and both teams finding the net given how these sides’ recent meetings have gone.
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