World Cup 2026 · Round of 16
Messi’s Last Dance Rolls On — Can Salah’s Egypt Spoil the Party in Atlanta?
Two number tens, one place in the last eight, and a defending champion who has been equal parts brilliant and breakable. Argentina against Egypt was never on many bracket predictions back in June, yet here we are — Lionel Messi’s holders against a Pharaohs side dreaming of a first-ever World Cup quarter-final, in the Atlanta heat.
Argentina come in as heavy favourites, but anyone who watched them cling on against Cape Verde knows this side can be got at. Egypt have Mohamed Salah, a low block, and nothing to lose. Here’s how we’re playing it — starting with the bet365 Bet Builder we’ve had our eye on.
- Argentina to Qualify
- Lionel Messi to Score
- Emiliano Martínez 1+ Saves
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The Road to Atlanta
Argentina topped Group J with a perfect three from three — Algeria (3-0), Austria (2-0) and Jordan (3-1) — with Messi rewriting the record books along the way, going past Miroslav Klose as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer. Then came the scare: 3-2 after extra time against debutants Cape Verde, a game they twice led and twice let slip before an own goal in the 111th minute spared them. Messi played all 120 minutes and admitted afterwards he was running on empty.
Egypt got here the hard way too, grinding out a 1-1 draw with Australia before winning 4-2 on penalties. It’s their first appearance in the knockouts since 1934 — the whole nation is riding this. They defend deep, they defend in numbers, and they trust Salah and Manchester City’s Omar Marmoush to nick something on the break.
Match Result · bet365
Where the Game Will Be Won
It comes down to whether Egypt’s rearguard can do what Cape Verde nearly managed: frustrate Argentina, stay in it, and make the holders nervous. The Opta model gives Argentina a 69% chance of winning inside 90 minutes — strong, but a long way from a formality given how they’ve defended in patches.
The flip side is Messi. Seven goals in four games, a goal in every match he’s played, and an expected-goals figure he’s blowing straight past. Scaloni’s whole system funnels through him. If Argentina need a moment of magic, they’ve got the man most likely to produce it — which is exactly why he anchors our Bet Builder above.
Team News
Argentina
Messi shrugged off fatigue talk to train fully and starts. Emiliano Martínez keeps his place in goal behind a back four of Molina, Romero, Lisandro Martínez and Medina. De Paul, Mac Allister and Enzo Fernández anchor midfield, with Álvarez and Lautaro supporting Messi.
Egypt
Salah passed a late fitness check after a hamstring scare against Australia and leads the line with Marmoush. Emam Ashour — their top scorer with two — pulls the strings in midfield. Expect a compact 4-4-2 built to soak pressure and counter through the wide areas.
Our Betting Tips
The headline play is the boosted Bet Builder up top — Argentina to Qualify, Messi to Score and Martínez 1+ Saves, pushed out to 2/1 from evens. If you fancy building your own instead, Messi anytime scorer at 4/6 is the standout single, and with Egypt likely to sit deep, Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5 fits the expected shape of a controlled Argentina win.
| Selection | bet365 |
|---|---|
| Messi Anytime Scorer | 4/6 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 4/5 |
| Argentina to Qualify | 2/15 |
| Argentina 2-0 (Correct Score) | 9/2 |
- Argentina to Qualify
- Lionel Messi to Score
- Emiliano Martínez 1+ Saves
18+. New & eligible customers only. Price boost available to selected customers — terms apply. Boosted price subject to change and may be withdrawn at any time. Bet Builder price set by bet365; confirm in-app before staking. Full T&Cs apply.
Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Argentina to Edge It — 2-0
Egypt will make them sweat for a spell, but class and Messi tell in the end. We’re calling a professional 2-0 for the holders, with the captain on the scoresheet again and a place in Kansas City booked against Switzerland or Colombia.
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