Spain Party Like Champions as bet365’s Trader Lifts the Lid on the World Cup’s Wildest Bets
Argentina never turned up in New York, England produced the goalfest of the tournament, and bet365’s Steve Freeth is already talking up 2030. Here’s his full trading review from a World Cup that had it all.
The Final: Spain Grind Out Argentina
It certainly wasn’t a classic, but there won’t be too many bookmakers complaining about Argentina’s no-show and Spain finally putting the 2026 World Cup final to bed in extra time.
The two substitutes, Nico Williams and Ferran Torres, who replaced Baena and Oyarzabal, combined to seal the win, with bet365’s Sub On Play On promotion again coming to the fore. It capped off the book’s best result of the tournament.
Read full ‘Sub On Play On’ T&Cs
Enzo Fernandez was a 33/1 shot to see red and duly received his marching orders after a lunge at Pau Cubarsi, which finally helped Spain break down a dogged Argentina side.
Next Stop 2030 — Who’s Fancied?
Spain started this tournament as 9/2 favourites, but some mediocre early performances saw them overtaken by France. They warmed to the pre-tournament favourites tag soon enough, and with them set to co-host in 2030, bet365 is giving them top billing again.
Getting burned writing off Lionel Messi before this year’s tournament hasn’t stopped the book taking a punt on him going one better in 2030 — Argentina are out at 12/1, even with Messi set to be 43 by kick-off.
Co-hosts Portugal could benefit from the exit of Roberto Martinez and Ronaldo, while England go off at 8/1 as the dust settles on yet another major tournament letdown.
England’s Six-Goal Rollercoaster vs France
On Saturday, England drifted like a barge once the Bronze final team news dropped, going off at 10/3 against France. No Kane, no Bellingham, no problem — 33/1 first-goalscorer Declan Rice broke the deadlock in the third minute. It was 4-0 at half-time, a scoreline that had punters piling in at 250/1 before kick-off.
bet365 also took 29 pre-game wagers on Bukayo Saka scoring a hat-trick at 200/1, with the final 6-4 scoreline trading at 250/1 in-play. The Sub On Play On promotion struck again too — backers of Cherki, Doue and Eze still celebrated despite being subbed off, with replacements Dembele, Barcola and Bellingham all getting on the scoresheet.
Where the Book Won and Lost
Portugal were the tournament’s one real loser in the Outright market — plenty, including Steve himself, backed Roberto Martinez to get it right despite the Ronaldo baggage. The last-16 defeat to eventual champions Spain settled that market for good.
The group stage was shakier, and it could have been worse had Martinez and Ronaldo not rescued a Group K favourites tag, with Portugal’s failure to beat Colombia in the decider wrecking a 156/1 12-fold.
The worst result of the lot was England’s 3-2 win over Mexico at the fortress Azteca Stadium, where a Jude Bellingham brace and Harry Kane penalty hurt the book, with Julian Quinones and Raul Jimenez also on target for the hosts.
Once the Bronze final team news broke, money moved fast for Kylian Mbappe in the Top Goalscorer market, cutting from 10/11 to 4/6 before shortening to 1/25 after a big second half. Lionel Messi drifted to 12/1 at kick-off by comparison.
In the awards market, Rodri drifted to 66/1 for the Golden Ball early on before rising to the top when it mattered, going off at 13/2 — with Messi the 1/12 favourite at kick-off in New York.
Steve admits he called the Young Player award wrong, doubting the trader’s call to keep shortening Pau Cubarsi (opened at 20/1) given the lack of history of defenders lifting that prize. And on David Raya’s absence for Spain — a talking point in the British press all tournament — Unai Simon answered every question with seven clean sheets, never bigger than 5/1 for the Golden Glove.
A final low on quality but high on drama for the book, a stunning England performance that shredded the odds boards, and Spain already installed as 2030 favourites before a ball’s been kicked. Any odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and are subject to fluctuation.
